Economist's take on the PotBS economy

[Ged Bligh]

Originally Posted by Ravenau deLusan

A suplus of goods isn't a bad thing, though I've rarely seen it happen other than in comon wood & gravel. Surplus means cheaper products and less time spent searching for items as well. And that surplus means more ships, refits, consumables, outfitting, and so forth. And less expensive ships that are easy to replace translates into more PvP simply because the penalty for loss is reduced.

Right now the DP is high because of a scarcity of products. No nails mean no ships. No ships mean no PvP for anyone, including the self sufficient societies that operate outside of the economy altogether. Sure they have ships, outfitting, ammo, & consumables, but if no one else does they will have no opponents.

Assuming one is here for the PvP & RvR aspects one would be well advised to argue for more labor, not less, more use of the AH, not closed loop econs, and for PvP's sake much less hoarding. If you aren't going to use that rare recipe book sell it. If you have 10 Teak Exceptional Armor sell some of them. Scarcity and high prices benefit no one in the long run.

In beta, the devs made a couple of the recipe books a bit too rare. One society happened to have picked up several of them. They said they would destroy them before they would sell them to anyone. Bright guys, eh? Who were they going to fight?

It's not the devs game design & vision that's a problem. It's short-sighted players' who are an issue.

A surplus of goods is bad especially when players dump them at below cost prices as it kills any profit for other traders.
Higher prices benefit the producers as they make more profit.
No body ever has no ships to PvP in as there are fallback ships free for all.
More labour is one answer in a depressed market but another would be to make pvp more popular or introducing repair cost (in parts) or risk for PvE so creating a healthy market.

The ecomomic design is a major problem as it is self defeating for reasons in my post above.

[DoctorJest]

A surplus of goods is bad especially when players dump them at below cost prices as it kills any profit for other traders.

Which is actually a technique of economic warfare. How do you drive out the competition? Sell for less than they can afford to sell them at. It's like if you're a software company and decide to give your web browser away for free and force netscape out of the market. It's dirty pool but it's a valid strategy if you can afford it.

I have thought that a way to destroy another nation's economy would be for a large group of wealthy FTs to produce a bunch of items and sell them in a foreign market, especially a major production and trade hub, at ruinously low prices. You'd cut off the supply of money to the local producers pretty well. Economic warfare!

I'd actually like to see more options for economic warfare in the game.

Captured goods from merchants in PVP also drive prices down. THERE is your black market: stolen goods going for a song. Yeah, it hurts legitimate businessmen. Doesn't crime always hurt the legitimate businessmen?

Higher prices benefit the producers as they make more profit.

Sure they do... but to make that profit you have to sell your goods. To make sure someone buys YOUR goods and not your competitor's goods, you need to list on the AH lower than they do (because lower priced goods sell first on the AH, regardless of the buyer's offer). So if I want MY rum to sell before Trader Joe's rum, I have to list at a price below Trader Joe. If I do that and steal Trader Joe's sales, he may in turn lower HIS prices in order to get my business. That's how price wars develop, and believe me it happen on the AH. I've made a small fortune doing just that.

No body ever has no ships to PvP in as there are fallback ships free for all.

You know, I keep hearing about fallback ships, but I've never seen one except for my starting ship. Where do these fallbacks come from? I think I missed a memo somewhere.

More labour is one answer in a depressed market

Actually, I'd prefer just a few more lots to build on. I think 10 per account is too low. Maybe 10 per CHARACTER would be ok.

but another would be to make pvp more popular or introducing repair cost (in parts) or risk for PvE so creating a healthy market.

I think figuring out how to make PVP more even-handed (i.e. avoiding gankfests) would do the most to helping things out. If 90% of the PVP wasn't 6vs1 with level 50s running down a little level 20 guy, people might be more willing to risk it.

The ecomomic design is a major problem as it is self defeating for reasons in my post above.

The economic design is beautiful: it requires you to be a savvy trader, gives you alot of options, and your success or failure in the enterprise is entirely based upon your own business acumen. Really, what do you want, an economy where you have a guaranteed market for anything you want to sell? That'd be no fun.

[Atillius]

Originally Posted by DoctorJest

Only metaphorically.

Actually that's not a broad brush. It's a pretty darn narrow one.


That's not what I'm seeing on Antigua.

No, your point of view on the subject is quite narrow, Antigua is not the only server in the game, if it where you would be exact.

Largely, prices have stabilized. That was one of my original points if you'll review. By and large common items have settled at a 30-50% above cost pricepoint in the market and haven't budged much.

Now, here's an example. A commonly used gun mod.....Accuracy Gun Mods, Huge 3 and Large 4 in the markets on BB; It costs about 340 db per one mod to produce, that goes for each one oddly enough. Now the average price for Brits is 1500 and the pirates is 2000, for one mod of either. Using your theory of 30-50% of 340 is 442 to 510. But as we can see here, the mark up is clearly and constantly 440% to 600%. Maybe things are better where you are, but, stop thinking its the same. Again, your argument seems based on book theory not what is happening on the servers.

Taxes are only offset in foreign ports, and even then the taxes are price prohibitive in my opinion. I only use that skill if a friendly port is captured because it's too expensive to move my raw material production elsewhere.

That was my point.

And sure, people will continue to sell wherever they're doing well. But if they're doing well at 300% markup, then a competitor can enter the same marketplace and sell at 100% markup and suddenly the 300% markup person will get ZERO sales. If things are selling for a high price it's because there isn't enough competition or because buyers are willing to pay a high premium on some goods.

I am going with another poster on "burger joints".....that is the reality. Many people are shipwrights or mod makers, because of the PvP where not enough people are sinking, well not enough to affect supply....and because of that, we have little movement of supply and inflated pricing.

Ultimately prices fall where there is competition and high supply and they stay the same or rise where there isn't enough competition and demand meets or exceeds supply. This is, again, Economics 101.

Again, you need to close your Principle of Economics textbook. Most of the players in this game are not Marco/Micro Economist.....and could careless. It goes back to the post about "hamburger shop"......the economy may have been set up like a "classical free market" but it is far from it. I honestly think that without some serious changes, the economy has one foot in the grave and the other on a banana peel. This is why many large societies just trade and build within themselves. Were as you can have a non-inflated market. I know that we have a few ammo producers in our group....and I can't remember that last time someone purchased ammo outside the society, same goes for ship mods. Now, thats a large demographic that isn't really doing much for the economy and are self sufficient.

Don't get me wrong, I was comfortable with my coin and had a method to my madness in which I rarley produced anything, just sold loot and commodities from PvP kills. Through observation I was able to figure out who operated at of what ports, and when I got a PvP kill and his cargo yielded my good loot, I would rush over to where I thought he may be and put it on the market. But selling items wasn't always successful....because as someone put, to many "hamburger shops". The player could recover what he lost by re crafting it.

[Atillius]

You know, I keep hearing about fallback ships, but I've never seen one except for my starting ship. Where do these fallbacks come from? I think I missed a memo somewhere.

If you have no ships in port and you loose your last duro on your only ship, then you get a free ship (fallback) that is commensurate with your level and career. In the f1 help, under ships there are some labeled "fallback"....those would be them.

[Vetarnias]

Interesting about leather: If it's not only on Rackham but also Antigua, why?

My own guess: It's lot- and labour-intensive. On a 3 plantations - 3 pastures - 1 slaughterhouse - 3 tanners setup, the more you can produce in a day is 72 leather and some leftover labour, with a cost of 33.56 doubloons each. If it sold at 134, with 100 doubloons' profit, you only get 7200 doubloons' profit per day, with no secondary goods except for meat, of which there is already such a glut on the market that you'll be lucky if you get 2 doubloons out of it. And 134 right now is attained in exceptional circumstances. Usually it's in the 110-120 range on Rackham.

There is money to be made in it, yes, but there just isn't enough of it in comparison to what other lines of production can earn. That is perhaps the greatest problem of PotBS -- not all production lines offer the same potential for profit at current market rates. Some products' prices ought to be far superior to what they are now, especially if, like leather, they are both in widespread use and labour-intensive.

I wish all leather producers would get together and refuse to sell at anything lower than 150 apiece. Yay cartels! (And as I said before, I wouldn't be a member of that one, though I sure hope for one on tar.)

[Atillius]

Actually, I'd prefer just a few more lots to build on. I think 10 per account is too low. Maybe 10 per CHARACTER would be ok.

This is because they do not want one player account to be an Empire. If it where 10 per account, then you would get that monopoly you said can't happen.

Same goes for why guild warehouses have yet to be instituted, where players in the same society can access a multitude of goods without the auction house.

[Ged Bligh]

Originally Posted by DoctorJest

Really, what do you want, an economy where you have a guaranteed market for anything you want to sell? That'd be no fun.

If you are in business a guaranteed market would a strong benefit.
It is a very bad to have no market!

What do i want?
1. An economy that doesn't rely on unfair red circle ganking as it's only sink or as a way of ruining other players game play. (self defeating)
2. PvP that is not intended to be unfair to ruin the opponents economy.
3. Fair rewards for PvP.
4. More economic sinks associated to PvE.

[Vetarnias]

Originally Posted by Atillius

This is because they do not want one player account to be an Empire. If it where 10 per account, then you would get that monopoly you said can't happen.

Same goes for why guild warehouses have yet to be instituted, where players in the same society can access a multitude of goods without the auction house.

What I would suggest is to have 24 hours a day of labour per structure, but that when you have more than 1 structure in operation, you can move your labour around. Hence if you have 10 structures, you have 240 hours of labour per day, but that you could spend it all on a single general plantation if you wanted. As much as I understand the current system forces you to join up with others to maximize production by ensuring no labour is wasted, perhaps players themselves ought to be allowed to maximize their production within their structures.

[DoctorJest]

Originally Posted by Atillius

No, your point of view on the subject is quite narrow, Antigua is not the only server in the game, if it where you would be exact.

It's the only direct experience I have. I can only attest thing things I personally know. The fact is, on Antigua, the economy is working.

Now, here's an example. A commonly used gun mod.....Accuracy Gun Mods, Huge 3 and Large 4 in the markets on BB; It costs about 340 db per one mod to produce, that goes for each one oddly enough. Now the average price for Brits is 1500 and the pirates is 2000, for one mod of either. Using your theory of 30-50% of 340 is 442 to 510. But as we can see here, the mark up is clearly and constantly 440% to 600%. Maybe things are better where you are, but, stop thinking its the same. Again, your argument seems based on book theory not what is happening on the servers.

You really need to actually read what I write. I didn't say EVERYTHING was at a 30-50% markup, I said most common items are at 30-50% markup. Common items are things virtually everyone uses: ammunition, consumables, some raw materials. Items that have both a high demand and a high supply. Items without those things will have a very different pricing structure.

I am going with another poster on "burger joints".....that is the reality. Many people are shipwrights or mod makers, because of the PvP where not enough people are sinking, well not enough to affect supply....and because of that, we have little movement of supply and inflated pricing.

Yep, which is not a problem with the game. It's a problem with the people who can't figure out that if there is nothing but burger joints on the entire street, that maybe opening another burger joint isn't a great idea.

Again, you need to close your Principle of Economics textbook. Most of the players in this game are not Marco/Micro Economist.....and could careless.

They don't have to be. Again, economics explains WHY things happen, it doesn't cause them to happen. Basic economics can explain why the economy in the game works like it does. To be successful at it, you just need to be smart.

It goes back to the post about "hamburger shop"......the economy may have been set up like a "classical free market" but it is far from it.

No, it isn't. It is, in fact, pretty darn close to being a classical free market: buyers and sellers decide upon price in the marketplace, without intervention from governments. That's all a free market is. I offer to sell X at price Y and you either buy it or you don't. Free markets are NOT fair markets, mind you, and never should be.

I honestly think that without some serious changes, the economy has one foot in the grave and the other on a banana peel. This is why many large societies just trade and build within themselves.

Nothing wrong with that. My wife and I supply each other with goods all the time. Thats one way I keep my costs down. However it takes a very large society to never have to step into the AH.

Ideally, I'd like to deal directly with other players rather than use the AH myself. The Auction House is the kiddie pool. The real money would be made in direct sales and trade deals between players and between, as well as within, societies.

Were as you can have a non-inflated market.

Quick quiz. You keep using the term "inflated". Can you please define the term "inflation" as it pertains to economics? [Indigo Montoya] I do not think it means what you think it means [/Indigo Montoya]

Don't get me wrong, I was comfortable with my coin and had a method to my madness in which I rarley produced anything, just sold loot and commodities from PvP kills. Through observation I was able to figure out who operated at of what ports, and when I got a PvP kill and his cargo yielded my good loot, I would rush over to where I thought he may be and put it on the market. But selling items wasn't always successful

In other words, you never really figured out how the economy works and you blame the game for that.

....because as someone put, to many "hamburger shops".

The answer to "too many hamburger shops" is to open a pizzeria, not to keep on trying to sell hamburgers, then when they don't sell, throwing your hands up and saying "The economy is broken!"

The player could recover what he lost by re crafting it.

At a significant loss.

[DoctorJest]

Originally Posted by Vetarnias

What I would suggest is to have 24 hours a day of labour per structure, but that when you have more than 1 structure in operation, you can move your labour around. Hence if you have 10 structures, you have 240 hours of labour per day, but that you could spend it all on a single general plantation if you wanted. As much as I understand the current system forces you to join up with others to maximize production by ensuring no labour is wasted, perhaps players themselves ought to be allowed to maximize their production within their structures.

That's actually a pretty good idea (although I still want more lots!).
I think a collective labor pool would help alot.

Also, capping stored labor at 7 days instead of 3 days would help too.